New Zealand Herald

From: Subject: New Zealand Herald Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 14:57:51 +1300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C5EABE.1E1BC770"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C5EABE.1E1BC770 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/search/print.cfm?c_id=&storyid=000BCD87-6F41-1379-A4FF83027AF10119 New Zealand Herald


	This article is owned by, or has been licensed to, the New = Zealand=20 Herald. You may not reproduce, publish, electronically archive or = transmit=20 this article in any manner without the prior written consent of = the New=20 Zealand Herald. To make a copyright clearance inquiry, please click=20 here.

Ronnie Horesh: Bond scheme can do = what=20 Kyoto cannot=20

16.11.05

The blunt truth = about the=20 politics of climate change is that no country will want to = sacrifice its=20 economy in order to meet this challenge."

Tony Blair, = speaking at=20 the G8 Climate Change Conference on November 2, confirms what many = of us=20 suspected: the Kyoto agreement to cut back on greenhouse gas = emissions is=20 dead.

It is unworkable, expensive, politically divisive = and=20 ineffectual.

Unlike many who oppose Kyoto, I do not think = all its=20 supporters are insincere or motivated purely by a wish to secure = funding=20 for their research programmes.

The evidence that the = climate is=20 changing is strong and getting stronger, and there is no question = that it=20 could have catastrophic effects. It also seems likely that = anthropogenic=20 greenhouse gas emissions are a cause.

But that doesn't = mean=20 cutting back emissions is the best way to prevent or mitigate = climate=20 change.

In their efforts to get the absurdly unworkable = Kyoto=20 agreement off the ground, its proponents have squandered precious=20 political capital, and set back the cause of those looking for = realistic=20 alternatives.

Perhaps some, including a few in the New = Zealand=20 Government, knew Kyoto would never fly, so could support it = safely. They=20 would thereby be demonstrating their immense care and compassion = for=20 humanity, knowing all along that Kyoto would come to nothing and = they=20 wouldn't have to sacrifice anything themselves.

This seems = to=20 apply to the European Union. The EU had pledged to reduce its = total=20 greenhouse gas emissions to 8 per cent below 1990s levels by = 2008-2012,=20 but by 2002 they had dropped only 2.9 per cent - and carbon = dioxide=20 emissions had risen slightly. Only four EU countries are on track = to=20 achieve their targets.

And the EU is economically = stagnating. Any=20 significant economic growth would probably end any prospect of its = meeting=20 the Kyoto targets.

Kyoto suffers from the same flaw as = many of our=20 other environmental and social policies: it assumes that = government knows=20 the best way of achieving our goals.

Kyoto is focused = entirely on=20 reducing net greenhouse gas emissions. But with climate change the = biological and physical relationships involved are many and = complex.=20

Even specialists in climatology disagree about the degree = to which=20 the multitude of biological and physical variables cause climate = change.=20

We need to recognise explicitly that we don't know all the = answers. Achieving a stable climate will mean investigating a wide = range=20 of diverse approaches that don't have anything to do with = greenhouse gas=20 emissions - but Kyoto will do nothing to encourage such research.=20

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions or sequestering carbon = might=20 turn out to be helpful and cost-effective.

But what if new = science=20 tells us either that greenhouse gases are not as important as = originally=20 thought, or that there are far more cost-effective ways of = achieving=20 climate stability?

Kyoto would grind on, with its = expensive and=20 futile controls on greenhouse gas emissions.

Our objective = should=20 be to achieve climate stability. A successful policy would = encourage those=20 who help stabilise the climate, however they do it.

My = suggestion=20 is that governments collectively issue climate stability bonds. = These=20 would be sold by auction, and redeemed for a fixed sum only when = the=20 climate has achieved an agreed and sustained level of stability. = In this=20 way there is no need for the targeting mechanism to make = assumptions as to=20 how to stabilise the world climate - that is left to bondholders.=20

Climate stability bonds would not bear interest and their=20 redemption date would be uncertain. Bondholders would gain most by = ensuring climate stability was achieved fast.

Once issued, = the=20 bonds would be tradeable on the free market. As the climate became = more=20 stable, so the bond price would rise.

Bondholders would = have=20 incentives to co-operate with each other to do what they could to = achieve=20 climate stability, then to sell their bonds at a higher price.=20

Governments would decide only on the degree of climate = stability=20 they wanted, not on how to achieve it. That would be left up to = investors=20 in the bonds, who would have every incentive to maximise the = taxpayer's=20 benefit per unit outlay.

Unlike Kyoto, a climate stability = bond=20 regime would stimulate research into finding cost-effective ways = of=20 achieving climate stability.

Kyoto is flawed because its = focus is=20 entirely on net greenhouse gas emissions. We need instead to look = at=20 solutions, such as climate stability bonds, that have as their = goal the=20 achievement of climate stability. There is too much at stake to = rely on=20 the fossilised science of Kyoto.

* Ronnie Horesh is a = Wellington=20 economist.

Privacy = Policy |=20 Terms = of=20 Use

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